Probabilistic Events (Alter Memory)

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Probabilistic Events
Episode Name

Probabilistic Events

Original Air Date

October 29th, 2013


Tatsuya Takahashi

Probabilistic Events (確率事象) is the fourth episode of BlazBlue: Alter Memory that first aired on October 29, 2013.



As Ragna recovers from his wounds,
Rachel meets with three mysterious beings and Noel runs into an old friend and classmate from the Military Academy.[1]


The episode begins with a flashback to the Military Academy. Noel Vermillion loses her poem to a gust of wind and is caught by Jin Kisaragi. The two become acquainted, with Jin noticing her similarity to Saya, but Noel becomes extremely flustered over Jin having seen her poem and runs away.

Hakumen has been bound by Kokonoe under multiple Ars Magus restraints. He attempts to fight against the chains using Order, but is unsuccessful. Rachel Alucard has been summoned by Takamagahara and she refuses to reveal to them why she had activated the Tsukuyomi Unit to stop the Gigant: Take-Mikazuchi. They tell her that a Continuum Shift event is about to begin, and that they cannot ascend to being a God.

In Lost Town, Ragna the Bloodedge continues to heal from his wounds, being pestered by the Kaka Kittens. Taokaka hands him a Kaka delicacy to help him heal. On duty, Noel is caught off-guard by Makoto Nanaya and the two share a tender embrace. The demi-human tells her of the explosion that had happened, and they reminisce on one of their study sessions, remembering when Tsubaki Yayoi told them of Take-Mikazuchi. In the memory, Jin passes by the girls, not paying Noel much attention. In the present, Makoto tells Noel that she cannot have a happy reunion with Tsubaki as the latter is en route to Kagutsuchi to assassinate both her and Jin.

On board an Ars Magus vessel, Tsubaki makes her way to complete her mission. She remembers how she was issued the order from Hazama. The memory details her going back to the Yayoi household to take out the Sealed Weapon Izayoi, the only weapon capable of taking on both Jin and Noel. Rachel watches over Jin, refusing to help him. Jubei finds the injured Jin and tells him of Order, hinting at Jin on how it operates before leaving. Noel tells Makoto about Ragna being the reason why Jin abandoned his post, with the demi-human telling her that the criminal is in Lost Town. Using an Ars Magus, Noel makes her way to the stairs leading to the district before being stopped by Litchi Faye-Ling, and begs to not fight with her. Litchi relents and allows Noel to follow her back down to the village, walking in on Ragna being harassed by Tao.

Rachel comes into the building, joining in on the chaos. Litchi begins asking Rachel questions as to why she knows about Ragna. She explains that she is an old acquaintance of Kokonoe to suffice as an explanation on why she knows so much. Ragna tells Noel that he is destroying every cauldron and that he wants to kill Yuuki Terumi more than anything. Both Relius Clover and Hazama have finished preparations for the Monolith, meeting Nine the Phantom. Kokonoe watches over Lambda-11 while Tsubaki tries to get a grip on her surroundings as Hazama monologues on how he will feast on the tragedy that is to come.








  • This is the first episode of Alter Memory to not feature any battles.


  1. BlazBlue: Alter Memory, Funimation, Episode 4 Description